Alternative Vote Swingometer

If you have any questions about the swingometer, please read the introductory post which includes instructions, justifications for various assumptions made in constructing it, and so on. You can also leave comments there.

Quick Calculations

2010 General Election under AV Populous/Times: 23 June 2010 Yougov/Channel 4: 28 June 2010 Yougov/Spectator: 6 July 2010 Yougov/Channel 4: 8 April 2011 Yougov/IPPR: 14 April 2011

Configure swingometer

First preferences

To approximate English figures from a GB-wide poll, add 2.5% to the Conservative total and subtract 2.0% from the Labour total.

Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
Other	8.1

Transfer percentages

		Transfer to
		Cons.	Labour	Lib Dem	Other	Nowhere
Transfer from	Conservative	-				31
	Labour		-			15
	Lib Dem			-		24
	Other				-	25

Swing mode

Uniform Proportional Swing
Uniform National Swing

Calculate

Results

Summary of English Seats Won

Party	Seats won	Change	UPS/UNS component	UT component
Conservative	276	-20	0	-20
Labour	193	+2	0	+2
Lib Dem	61	+18	0	+18
Other	1	0	0	0

Seats changing hands (or 'saved' by AV)

(not calculated yet)

Majority distribution

(not calculated yet)

Majority size	Under FPTP	Under AV (last 2 only)
< 500	?	?
< 1,000	?	?
< 2,000	?	?
< 4,000	?	?
< 6,000	?	?
< 8,000	?	?
< 10,000	?	?
< 12,000	?	?
< 14,000	?	?
< 17,000	?	?
< 20,000	?	?

(Read more about majority distributions and 'safe seats')

Seats with a potentially non-monotonic result

(What is non-monoticity about?)

(not calculated yet)