Alternative Vote Swingometer

If you have any questions about the swingometer, please read the introductory post which includes instructions, justifications for various assumptions made in constructing it, and so on. You can also leave comments there.

Quick Calculations

Configure swingometer

First preferences

To approximate English figures from a GB-wide poll, add 2.5% to the Conservative total and subtract 2.0% from the Labour total.

Other8.1
Transfer percentages
Transfer to
Cons.LabourLib DemOtherNowhere
Transfer fromConservative-31
Labour-15
Lib Dem-24
Other-25
Swing mode
Calculate

Results

Summary of English Seats Won
PartySeats wonChangeUPS/UNS componentUT component
Conservative276-200-20
Labour193+20+2
Lib Dem61+180+18
Other1000
Seats changing hands (or 'saved' by AV)
(not calculated yet)
Majority distribution
(not calculated yet)
Majority sizeUnder FPTPUnder AV (last 2 only)
< 500??
< 1,000??
< 2,000??
< 4,000??
< 6,000??
< 8,000??
< 10,000??
< 12,000??
< 14,000??
< 17,000??
< 20,000??

(Read more about majority distributions and 'safe seats')

Seats with a potentially non-monotonic result

(What is non-monoticity about?)

(not calculated yet)