Thursday, 10 June 2010

Rape defendant anonymity: update

This post discusses rape, suicide and has links to some extremely graphic news articles. [Trigger warning]

At Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, Caroline Flint MP (Labour, Don Valley) followed up on her earlier adjournment debate with more questions for Cameron.

gorilerof3b points out that he may have read the Stern Review, but he didn't comprehend it, and that the sources for some of his statements were unclear.

Yet again, the government are exposed as having thought of the idea first (in the way that eight white cis men in a negotiating room might do), without having any actual evidence to justify it beyond the belief in rape myths of those eight men. So, here's David Cameron PM:

We know that a lot of people are falsely accused, whose careers and lives can be blighted- [Interruption.] Opposition Members shake their heads, but in some cases people have committed suicide.

Yes, it is true, some people have committed suicide after a (presumed by Cameron to be false1) accusation of rape. Let's assume, again for the sake of argument, that this - as opposed to the vast number of rape victims who attempt or commit suicide because society won't help them - is something the government should try to deal with at all costs.

A big problem for Cameron remains even if we unconditionally accept this twisted premise: his proposals would make no difference.

As previously covered here and in the Parliamentary briefing paper, "anonymity" in law, as currently given to victims and now proposed for defendants, only prevents the media from reporting your name or identifying information.

I'm going to make an assumption here: where the press reports on a rape case and names a suspect, and this reporting takes place before a suicide attempt, the press will also report the suicide attempt. In other words, no-one is going to be named by the press as a suspect, commit suicide, and then not have their death reported. This isn't a completely safe assumption, but it seems unlikely that a media organisation, having decided that a rape case was "interesting" enough to report on in the first place, would then decide that the death of the suspect/defendant would lead to the story becoming less interesting (in some cases, the suicide attempt seems to have been necessary for the story to have been interesting enough for the press to report on the case at all).

So, I searched for news articles containing "rape" and "suicide" from the last ten years. I then ruled out those:

  • that came from locations outside the UK,
  • there were a lot of these - where the combination of words resulted from the victim having attempted or committed suicide
  • where the suspect is only reported as having "contemplated suicide" but for which there's no evidence that they made an attempt
  • where the suicide attempt predated any police involvement in the case (i.e. they raped someone, tried to kill themselves, then got arrested)
  • where the suspect wasn't named
  • where the suicide attempt came after they were convicted
  • where I already had an article mentioning this suspect in my list

I don't think I found all of them, but I do think I got a decent sample of relevant articles.

Having excluded those, 18 cases remained, spread across the ten years and from a variety of local and national sources. For each of those, I searched Lexis Nexis UK to see if I could find any mention of the defendant or suspect in the press before the report of their attempted or completed suicide. Trigger warning for all links.

ArticleYearConvicted?In press prior to attempt
12003Dead before trialNo
22004AcquittedNo
32004Dead before trialNo
42005Acquitted, attempt beforeNo
52006Dead before trialNo
62006Dead before trialNo
72006YesNo
82007Dead before trialNo
92007Dead before trial (confessed to police)No
102007YesNo
112007YesYes, after he broke bail
122008Not chargedNo
132008Not charged, committed suicide a year laterNo
142008YesNo
152009Acquitted, suicide afterNo
162009Trial ongoingYes, when bailed
172010Dead before trialNo
182010YesYes, after charge

In only three of the eighteen cases was the case reported on in the press before the defendants attempted suicide. In two of those cases, the defendant was later convicted. In the third, the trial is still ongoing.

So, the total number of falsely-accused defendants' lives that would be saved by giving anonymity in the media to defendants, over a ten year period, appears to be approximately zero.

Well done, Mr Cameron.

Meanwhile, this multiple murder suspect, named repeatedly in the press when charged, has recently attempted suicide. I didn't do a detailed study, but even before this report came in today, I didn't have trouble finding cases where murder suspects have attempted or committed suicide. Yet no-one seems concerned about the effect on murder suspects of having their names publicised.

Coming up later in Parliament: at 2:30pm on Tuesday 15 June, is Oral Questions to the Justice department, who "own" this proposal. At 10:30am on Thursday 17 June, the same for Women and Equality. Given the current strong efforts of Labour MPs to keep this issue on the agenda, both seem worth keeping an eye on.

1 which, of course, is also not necessarily true. 5 of the above sample were convicted, and in a majority of the "Dead before trial" cases reported there was an extremely strong case and no suggestion anywhere in the press that there was a false allegation.

Wednesday, 9 June 2010

Save Refugee and Migrant Justice

Via Left Outside and Anji Capes at The F-Word, the news that the charity Refugee and Migrant Justice, which provides free legal representation for asylum seekers, is in danger of closing.

They have produced a leaflet (PDF) explaining the reasons for the problem and summarising the valuable work they do.

If you have time, please write to Kenneth Clarke QC MP, Minister for Justice, and to Damian Green MP, Minister for Immigration, to ask them to reverse the changes in how legal aid funding is paid and so keep a valuable service running.

Here's the letter I've sent. Refugee and Migrant Justice have their own suggested letter (though, if you have the time to write your own, do so - it will have more impact) and contact details for the ministers.

Dear Kenneth Clarke QC MP, Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor

The charity Refugee and Migrant Justice, which provides asylum seekers with legal representation, is currently facing major financial problems due to a change in the way that the Legal Services Commission funds legal aid work.

Rather than being paid monthly to cover costs incurred, payment is now being made only at the conclusion of each case, which can take many months, and leaves the charity having to fund a large amount of expenditure in advance.

The charity does excellent work in its provision of representation, which improves the efficiency and accuracy of the asylum process. It would be extremely unfortunate if it were to close solely due to a failure of the Legal Services Commission to pay promptly the money owed to it.

Without the work of Refugee and Migrant Justice and other organisations, asylum seekers that the previous government would have wrongly and shamefully sent back into danger would not have had access to the representation they needed.

Please ensure that the asylum system is able to conduct itself with fairness, transparency and integrity, show that you are committed to improving on the record of the previous government in this area, and either reverse the change in the Legal Services Commission rules, or if this is not possible, provide interest-free loans to Refugee and Migrant Justice to allow it to keep operating under the new rules.

Yours sincerely,

[me]

Tuesday, 8 June 2010

Update on rape defendant anonymity

Last night there was an "adjournment debate" in the House of Commons on the proposals to grant suspected rapists anonymity.

[trigger warning]

Before we get to that:

  • There are now just under 1,600 signatures on the petition. Please sign it if you haven't yet done so.
  • There have been another nine signatures on Early Day Motion 105, including the first and so far only coalition member - Mike Hancock MP (Lib Dem, Portsmouth South) - and Green MP Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion).

Earlier in the day, Lorely Burt MP (Lib Dem, Solihull) asked Nick Clegg MP (Deputy PM) about the proposals. His answer was fairly predictable, of course, and again hinted that they might drop or significantly cut back the proposal.

The adjournment debate itself was begun by Caroline Flint MP (Labour, Don Valley), who had earlier that day written this article for the Independent. Several other Labour MPs made statements in the debate.

Crispin Blunt MP (Conservative, Reigate) did the replying for the Government (and was the only person speaking in favour of the proposals during the debate). gorilerof3b and Sian at UKFeminista both have excellent analysis on why his arguments are incoherent.

The coalition as a whole seems to be having difficulty putting forward a consistent line on it, with the initial statement in Parliament by George Young MP, David Cameron MP's response at Prime Minister's Questions, and the two responses today not having much in common. I hope this suggests that even at a senior level in the government there's not that much enthusiasm for the idea and so more chance that we can get it dropped.

One of the areas in which Crispin Blunt MP suggests that there is not sufficient evidence (which it appears means "he has not tried hard enough to find evidence" rather than "there is no evidence") is in the prevalence of serial rapists. Here's the particular bit of his speech.

Lisak and Miller's paper on the subject provides fairly clear evidence on the subject - the majority of undetected rapists were serial rapists who had committed a mean of 5.8 rapes each. (And, of course, some of the non-serial rapists might well just not yet be serial rapists). He references other studies showing that the pattern for convicted rapists is similar.

Another piece of evidence for most rapists being serial rapists is the sheer numbers involved. Earlier, I roughly estimated the annual number of rapes as being around 210,000 based on British Crime Survey data. We know from the same sources that around 98% of rapists are men.

The British Crime Survey covers (it will be extended to younger people soon) ages 16-59. Let's assume that as the estimate above includes no victims outside that age range, it also includes no perpetrators. So, around 210,000 rapes a year are committed (and this figure is relatively stable over time). Over the lifetime between 16-59 of a person, therefore, around 9.2 million rapes will be committed. Let's round this down to 9 million to give a conservative estimate of how many of those were committed by men.

On 2009 figures (Flash, so accessibility may not be great, but the raw data is also available), there were just over 18 million men in that age range, a figure that is also not expected to have massive changes over time.

So, either Lisak and Miller are right, and the majority of rapes are committed by serial rapists, or Lisak and Miller are wrong (or right about the USA where this research takes place, but the UK is for some reason very different), the majority of rapes are committed by one-time rapists, and around half of the male population of the country either needs to spend a while in jail or will do soon. (Yes, using Lisak's figures and those of other studies we find that around 1 in 10 men are rapists, which is only marginally better than "1 in 2", and similarly impractical in its implications for the prison system).

I've sent the following message to the Ministry of Justice via the general enquiries email - general.queries@justice.gsi.gov.uk. I'm also sending a message with similar information to my own MP.

Dear Crispin Blunt MP, Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Justice,

In the recent adjournment debate regarding Government proposals to give anonymity to rape defendants you said (HC Deb, 7 June 2010, c155) that:

[...] when I asked for evidence of how many rapists were serial offenders, and what proportion of convicted or charged rapists might fall into that category, there appeared to be insufficient data to form a reliable evidential picture

You may be interested to read the paper "Repeat Rape and Multiple Offending Among Undetected Rapists" by Lisak and Miller published in 2002 in Violence and Victims (Vol 17. No. 1). If you do not have access to that journal, the paper is available online at http://www.publicintegrity.org/investigations/campus_assault/assets/pdf/Document5_Lisak_study.pdf

This paper answers this question - in summary, the average rapist has committed around 4 rapes, with the vast majority of rapes being committed by serial rapists. The findings have been replicated elsewhere, for example in the 2009 paper "Reports of Rape Reperpetration by Newly Enlisted Male Navy Personnel" by McWhorter, et al., published in Violence and Victims, Vol. 24, No. 2. You will also find several references in Lisak and Miller's paper to earlier papers which researched the prevalence of serial rape (again, very high) among convicted rapists.

There is some possibility that Lisak and Miller's findings in the USA would not be replicated in the UK, although the two countries have similar statistics on many other aspects of rape perpetration and detection, and approximate calculations based on British Crime Survey data and other studies on reported and unreported rape suggest that the figures for the UK are likely to be similar to those found by Lisak and Miller.

It would, however, be straightforward and inexpensive to carry out similar studies in the UK if you believed that there was likely to be a significant difference.

I remain concerned that these proposals have been brought forward at all, and been given a place in the Programme for Government that effectively forms the coalition's manifesto, if it is your opinion that there is not yet sufficient evidence regarding some of the crucial questions surrounding the proposal such as the prevalence of serial perpetrators. Would you be able to give a guarantee that no proposals to introduce anonymity for defendants will be brought forward until independent research has been carried out on these questions?

Yours sincerely,

[me]

...and to my MP

Dear Roberta Blackman-Woods MP,

Thank you for your recent letter on this subject, and for the work that you and your colleagues have been doing to oppose this idea, which appears from the contradictory statements made by various members of the government to be having an effect.

I read with interest the recent adjournment debate begun by your colleague Caroline Flint MP, and the responses by the government delivered by Crispin Blunt MP.

One of the statements that Mr Blunt made was that there is insufficient evidence on the prevalence of serial rapists, both in general and relating solely to convicted rapists. Since it is unlikely to be the first time this claim is made, if you have not already seen it, I would like to draw to your attention a paper by Lisak and Miller published in 2002 in the journal "Violence and Victims".

This paper, "Repeat Rape and Multiple Offending Among Undetected Rapists", shows that the vast majority of rapes are perpetrated by serial offenders, with the average offender committing around 4 rapes. It also contains numerous references to other papers on the subject, including two specifically looking at the behaviour of convicted rapists.

If you do not have access to the journal, this paper is available online at http://www.publicintegrity.org/investigations/campus_assault/assets/pdf/Document5_Lisak_study.pdf

While this paper describes research carried out in the USA, the UK has very similar levels of prevalence of rape in general, and so the burden of proof should be on the government, if it does not believe that Lisak and Miller's study and other similar studies are applicable to the UK, to fund similar independent research in this country before proceeding with any variation of its proposals.

Again, thank you for all the work that you and your colleagues have done so far on this issue.

Yours sincerely,

[me]

Saturday, 5 June 2010

The "best" "person" for the job

The news that Harriet Harman has called for half of Labour's shadow cabinet to be women has stirred up the usual controversy, with calls for "the best man person for the job to be chosen". The same arguments come up with discussions of quotas or all-women/all-BAME shortlists.

It always sounds initially reasonable because who wouldn't want the best people, but there are several big problems with this.

Problem 1: Who says what best means?

If you have a bunch of mostly privileged people in charge at the moment, they will probably assess "best" as "like us". It may well be subconscious, and it may well be justified based on "experience" or "political views" but the effect is the important thing, and the effect will be to perpetuate privilege.

Some requirement to improve the diversity of the representative body1 over time is needed to break out of this pattern.

It's generally accepted, for instance, that there is a critical point in Parliaments where the proportion of women exceeds 30%. Above that point, women are "expected" to be in Parliament, and the process of increasing representation becomes self-sustaining (though measures still need to be taken to ensure that there isn't a bias retained for the more senior posts). Those countries that have reached that threshold have all made explicit efforts to do so (usually using some sort of quotas, either in election or selection processes)

Problem 2: "Best" is not a constant over time

Someone who has overcome a lack of privilege to get to the stage of being a plausible contender for the Shadow Cabinet has necessarily had to put more effort in and work harder to get to that stage than an ultra-privileged default person who - while they still had to work hard for it - did not have additional barriers put in their way.

They might be, on paper, not quite as good at the moment as Mr. Default, but after a year they might well be better than Mr. Default would be.

Problem 3: The implication that our current default representatives are the best

No-one ever claims this explicitly because it's so obviously and laughably false, but it's a fairly clear implicit assumption.

When the effects of privilege on people's decisions and opinions are considered, this is clearly even further from the truth.

Problem 4: The definition of "best" is fluid

If you're only appointing one person, then you can probably come up with some criteria for who the best person is, apply them to the candidates, accept a certain margin for error as inevitable but go with the result anyway.

If you're appointing several people - or for Parliament as a whole, hundreds of people - then it's very tempting to just do the same thing again.

Let's say that we're looking for people to sit on a committee. There are three spaces, and numerous candidates. To simplify, we've got free choice over the appointment, and after consideration, we decide that there are four separate equally important skills that these committee members should have. We assess our candidates against these skills (let's assume a perfectly accurate assessment method, because we've already covered potential inaccuracies in Problem 1) and get the following:

CandidateABCDEFG
Skill W98710134
Skill X7856925
Skill Y3243845
Skill Z54512104
Total24222120201918

If we go for appointing the three best candidates in the naive "best people for the job" way, we appoint A, B and C, who have the highest totals. This leaves our team, however, very weak in skill Y (between them, they're as good at this as candidate A alone is at skill W, and it's unlikely to be purely additive) and not much better in skill Z.

By appointing D, E and F instead, despite these three being weaker as individuals, the maximum skills of the team are much better - 10+9+8+10 rather than 9+8+4+5 - and after a little bit of practice and in-team training, we should have a much better committee.

I've intentionally made this an extreme example, for clarity, but even in a more ambiguous case - C having their 7 in Skill Y, for example - I think it would be difficult to justify appointing both A and B.

And so it is with not appointing default people all or most of the time - by increasing the diversity of the representative body, you increase the range of problems it can identify and usefully deal with. I don't doubt the good intent of some of the current default MPs in Parliament, but with the levels of privilege they have, even knowing what the right questions to ask are is going to be unlikely (and that's just the ones that are aware of their privilege and trying to fight it, never mind the ones that are unaware of it and/or quite enjoy having it).

The recent anonymity proposals that I've written about have provided a very clear example of why female MPs are extremely necessary at all levels of government. The proposal was added by an all-white-male negotiating team for the coalition, and largely opposed by women in the opposition parties. A more gender-balanced Parliament or negotiating team probably wouldn't even have suggested the idea.

It's not necessary to be the best in general (even temporarily accepting the quite possibly false assumption that the current best person is a default person) . You just need to be better than all or most of the others at something and not dangerously incompetent at the rest. With the current gender and race balances in Parliament, a mediocre female or BAME MP will almost certainly still benefit the country and Parliament more than all but the most exceptionally talented white male MPs, and - see Problem 3 - the vast majority of our current white male MPs are not "exceptionally talented".

1 The Shadow Cabinet is not a representative body as such, but it in the aspects relevant to this discussion it has many similarities.

Reply on anonymity

I got a reply from my MP regarding anonymity of rape trial defendants.

[trigger warning]

Removing the usual header and footer:

As you are already aware, I have signed EDM105 which was tabled by Fiona Mactaggart. I agree that the Government's proposal will send a message to juries and rape victims that the victim is not to be believed and I fear that this could inhibit the effective prosecution of serial rapists. In my mind, this proposal should be withdrawn as it does not appear to have been put forward on the basis of any strong evidence or research.

I can reassure you that I will certainly vote against any legislation that includes this proposal and along with Harriet Harman I will be pressuring the Government whenever possible to scrap these plans.

Thursday, 3 June 2010

Anonymity for defendants, continued

More on the defendant anonymity issue.

[trigger warning]

There's a briefing paper produced by Parliamentary researchers that nicely sums up the situation up until now with regards to anonymity. It's well worth reading.

Cath at Too Much To Say For Myself, along with news that Cameron may be backing off the idea slightly, gives a link to this piece by Vera Baird (former solicitor general).

I've updated the countering bad arguments post with a few more arguments.

The campaigning that has been done so far appears to be having an effect and the proposal has been raised in Parliament a few times so far:

Rosie Winterton MP (Labour, Doncaster Central), raised the issue in the debate on the Business of the House on the 27th May. The coalition reply from George Young MP (Conservative, North West Hampshire) was:

That is why we have said that we will undertake a careful and sensitive analysis of the options and implications before we bring any proposals to Parliament.

...which is not at all what appeared in the Programme for Government. They do appear to be backing down a bit under the pressure, which is good.

Kerry McCarthy MP (Labour, Bristol East) continues to ask questions in the same debate, as does Fiona Mactaggart MP (Labour, Slough), who proposed the Early Day Motion mentioned earlier.

Note, again, it's only women who seem to consider the issue important enough to raise, though it's not impossible that some male MPs who would have mentioned it were not called upon to speak in the debate.

On 2 June, Harriet Harman MP (Labour, Camberwell & Peckham), as acting leader of the Opposition, used one of her allocated questions to the Prime Minister to ask about this issue. This part of his response is interesting:

We came to the conclusion that there was a case for saying that between arrest and charge there was a case for anonymity.

[...]

We all want the same thing, which is to increase the number of successful rape prosecutions and to send more rapists to jail: that is what this is about.

Both of those are useful quotes - the first, because it is a definite backing off from the Programme for Government quote referring to "defendants" (who are by definition charged) - the second, because it provides a very useful point to criticise the proposals: the reason defendants do not have anonymity is because it did the opposite.

So, good work from several Labour women there. I do wonder if any of the previous or likely future male Labour leaders would have given the issue such a high priority. Only Diane Abbott, of the potential leadership candidates, has signed the Early Day Motion, and it's looking somewhat unlikely at the moment that she'll even get enough nominations to be on the ballot paper.

Sunder Katwala at Next Left points out that in the vast majority of cases, pre-charge suspects usually have anonymity anyway (and that in the cases where they don't, there's usually a very good reason)

There's now an adjournment debate1 scheduled for 7 June on the subject, too.

1 Parliament, ostensibly debating whether or not to adjourn debate until the following day, actually chats about something else entirely for a little while, and then votes to adjourn. It's nice that there are mechanisms for topical issues to be discussed in Parliament, but a less evolutionary approach to things might have given a more legislative body whose proceedings are more comprehensible to outsiders.

Monday, 31 May 2010

Happy plants

A short break from the usual with some plant photos.

Bluebells
The bluebells are finally out.

Leafy plants
The big leafy plants are starting to cover a lot more of the ground now, so after a year it looks a lot less bare earth. This one isn't quite flowering fully yet, but the leaves are nice.

Garlic flowers
Like the bluebells, the garlic put out some leaves months ago, but only flowered just now. It's a small cluster of pretty white flowers.

Lots of flowers on stalks
We planted these not long ago, and in the last few days they've all flowered. The bright white one in the middle is more garlic.

Friday, 28 May 2010

Friday links

Countering bad arguments for defendant anonymity

So, this proposal to give anonymity to defendants in rape trials is picking up a bunch of bad arguments. Since, no doubt, they'll come up again if this ever gets to the legislative stage, I'm writing them down now for future reference. I'll keep editing this post to add more arguments as needed.

Meanwhile, a few other possible campaign actions:

  • In comments, gorilerof3b points out this petition to the Justice Secretary to drop the proposal.
  • From the petition page, there's this Early Day Motion (Parliament's internal equivalent of a petition). So far (as of 28 May) it has 52 Labour signatories and 1 Plaid Cymru one. If your MP isn't on that list, encourage them to sign up.

    Looking at who has signed it 38 of the 53 signatories are women, or 72%. In the Commons as a whole, 22% of MPs (143 of 650) are women. So, the motion has so far been signed by just over 26% of the women in the Commons (46% of the Labour women), and by just under 3% of the men.

    So, yes, let's file this proposal under "ones that a Parliament with decent gender balance would probably never have even considered".

  • Another post, and an excellent letter, on this, by Sian and Crooked Rib.

On to the arguments. (Last edit: 9 July)

[trigger warning]

The victims get anonymity, so why shouldn't the defendant?

Short answer: Because the defendant is suspected of a crime and the victim isn't.

While there's obviously a temptation to say that it's only fair that the defendant should have the same right to anonymity - a temptation that the 1976 Labour government succumbed to - it makes no sense.

Suspects for a crime are generally charged with the crime many months before their trial. This is unavoidable - we have a busy justice system, and both sides need time to prepare their cases. In that time, it is possible that the suspect, rather than face trial, will go into hiding. So, we have bail arrangements, and suspects who can't put down a satisfactory bond or who breach their bail terms are detained in prison until the trial.

No-one, so far as I know, is arguing that we should either extend the same treatment to witnesses, or arguing that because we allow witnesses to go about their lives and trust them to appear when called at the trial we should extend the same trust to all suspects. The bail system is widely seen as fair and reasonable.1

There may be reasons why defendants in a particular trial or class of trials should be given anonymity, but that witnesses in the same trials are anonymous is not one of them. There is no principle anywhere else in the system that defendants and witnesses/victims should be treated identically.

However, this line of argument doesn't even hold together if you believe that while in general defendant and victim rights should be different there is nevertheless a case for them to be the same regarding media anonymity.

If that was the case, the victims in cases where the defendants currently get anonymity (an over-18 victim of a non-sexual crime allegedly committed by an under-18 defendant, for instance) should also be given anonymity. There's no demand for this, and I've never seen anyone anywhere explicitly suggest it, and it makes no sense whatsoever, but that's the consequence of a "victims and defendants should have the same anonymity" argument.

1 It has problems with racism and classism, yes, so it's not actually as reasonable as it is perceived, but those are largely problems with the implementation rather than the principle.

Anonymity should be for defendants in all crimes (or all "serious" crimes)

I have to say, I would be far more sympathetic to this argument if I ever saw it anywhere else. It only seems to come out, though, as part of sequences like this:

Person A: We should have anonymity for defendants in rape trials.

Person B: Why? Defendants on charges of terrorism, or child abuse, or murder, or other horrific crimes don't get to be anonymous, despite the potential for their reputation to be damaged also being very large.

Person C: I'd be in favour of anonymity for defendants of all (serious) crimes.

What I don't see is Person C saying this in any other contexts. If there were really masses of people holding this opinion, I'd expect to see some sign of this. I've looked, and I found a lot calling for anonymity for rape defendants specifically, but only one calling for general anonymity, and while they are on paper for all defendants, the vast majority of their proposals and case studies relate to rape and other sexual offences, so I don't think it breaks the general pattern. They are massively outnumbered, to put it mildly, by calls only affecting rape defendants.

But, that's not a reason to reject the proposal. The following, however, are - and are also perhaps reasons it's rarely suggested outside this context:

  1. Public trials are generally in the interest of the defendant, since it means that justice can be seen to be done. This is articles 10 and 11 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. I don't think many people would be entirely comfortable with a country where suspects were arrested, charged and tried in absolute secrecy - with reporting on this being itself an offence - and only after they had been found guilty and jailed could the whole process be reported on.

    Meanwhile, those who were arrested, charged, tried and later acquitted would have to explicitly waive their anonymity for any lessons regarding the process to be made public. This could cover up a number of abuses of process, or cases of systematic discrimination in the system.

  2. While there are rightly laws that allow defendants anonymity in the cases where revealing their identity might reveal the identity of their victims or other vulnerable people (and these laws are used in rape cases already), extending these as a matter of course to all trials leads to ridiculous situations.

    For example: A major business collapses into bankruptcy. The CEO is arrested on fraud charges and brought to trial. The press cannot usefully report on the trial at all because there is no way to mention even the details of the charges - or perhaps in some cases even the company - without revealing the identity of the defendant. Not all trials would be affected this way, of course, but some high profile ones would.

    If we take the case, for instance, of Bernard Madoff (I know, US rather than UK law, but the principles don't differ in this case), I can't see how you could even report that his pyramid scheme had collapsed without breaking a strict defendant anonymity requirement.

  3. What do the police do if they have a suspect, and want to either find out who they are or gather further evidence? At the moment, they might release CCTV footage, or a photo-fit, or even just a description to the press, in the hope that someone will recognise them and give them additional evidence. How this is reconciled with a requirement not to identify in association with a crime anyone not found guilty of the crime I'm not sure.

    Here's a suspected rapist who had an e-fit of their appearance released recently. It's rare for identifying information to be released by the police pre-charge, but here's a case where it's necessary to do so pre-arrest.

    Conversely, if you allow the police to release a suspect's name (or other strongly identifying information) and the press to report on this for the purposes of evidence gathering, this is really no change from now. Since one argument against defendant anonymity in rape cases is that it may encourage other victims of a serial rapist to come forward, this is going to be a fairly common action by any police force that actually wants to convict rapists.

Innocent until proven guilty! Eleventy!

This isn't used as an argument in itself, as such, but as a statement to back up other arguments. It's being badly misused.

"Innocent until proven guilty" means that where someone is suspected of a crime, the burden of proof is on the prosecution, who has to prove to the satisfaction of the court that the accused did in fact commit the crime. If they cannot, they are acquitted and freed as there is a presumption of innocence.

It is in contrast to the system of prosecution used - for instance in Revolutionary France - in which suspects are presumed to be guilty unless they can provide satisfactory evidence of their innocence, and is a definite good thing and part of the universal declaration of human rights.

It does not, however, mean that people who are suspected of a crime must be treated identically by the justice system to other presumably innocent people who are not suspected of that crime, because that would be absurd and make it impossible to try people at all.

There are lots of false allegations of rape

There have been many studies done that show, firstly, that there aren't many false allegations made, and that secondly, that most of the false allegations that are made do not name a perpetrator. The number that reach the charges/court stage is incredibly small indeed. Before this stage suspects usually have anonymity in practice anyway, because very few rape cases reach press attention in the pre-charge stage. ACPO guidance from 2000 recommends that for all crimes, in general, suspects should not be named by the police pre-charge.

Actually arguing on that basis is rather pointless, though, because there are also studies (ones, admittedly, with a methodology that it would be generous to describe as extremely flawed) that show the opposite. Without a great amount of time, a strong knowledge of statistics and survey design, and often expensive access to the original papers to look at the methodology, it's difficult to put that argument together.

There is, however, a very simple argument for why the rate must be low (though it doesn't say exactly how low).

According to the British Crime Survey (volume 1, table 3.11), 0.2% of adults aged 16 to 59 were victims of rape at least once in the previous 12 months. There were about 36 million adults of those ages in that year, so that's at least 72,000 rapes of adults of those ages (but this is an absolute minimum, as it doesn't cover multiple attacks on the same person in the same year).

This Home Office study gives an estimate for repeat victimisation in Figure 5.2 and the surrounding text. It references another study suggesting an average of 2.9 rapes per year, or about 210,000 a year nationally.

Only about 8,000 rapes of adults were reported to the police, which is around 4% of the total (less, in fact, since some of the rapes reported will have been of victims aged 60 or over).

There are two things to note here:

  1. Firstly, anyone claiming a false accusation rate above 4% is claiming that it is more likely that a particular report of rape will be false than it is that a particular rape will be reported. While these are not directly comparable reporting rates (the numerator of one is the denominator of the other), it still seems highly unlikely.
  2. Secondly, if the false accusation rate is really 80% (or any of the other ridiculously high figures claimed), that means that 80% of those 8,000 reports are false. That means that only 1,600 are true, which brings the reporting rate for the rapes that did occur down from 4% to less than 1%. It's already a low enough figure to be extremely worrying - and the lower it gets, the less case there is for defendant anonymity (since that has been shown to be harmful to reporting rates).

Anonymity would better protect the reputations of people who were acquitted

There's lots of talk about how people accused of rape can find themselves shunned by some of their social circle even if acquitted. More likely is that the victims will find themselves shunned or disbelieved if they ever say anything, while people will make all sorts of excuses for the perpetrator's behaviour, but let's assume, just for the sake of demolishing this particular argument for defendant anonymity, that people who are accused of rape, and either not charged or acquitted, are subjected to shunning (and according to one now-deleted and implausible comment on this post, vigilante attacks) at some noticeable rate.

An anonymity law would not prevent this.

People's reputation with their social circles is largely dependent on informal conversations and gossip. The anonymity law, like the existing one for victims, would prevent the press from reporting on the suspected rapist's identity. It would not prevent the suspected rapist's acquaintances from wondering why exactly he was in trouble with the police, or off to court. If rape was the only crime for which routine anonymity was granted (and I've covered above why blanket anonymity would be a problem), then they'll know he's off to court, they'll know it's confidential what for, and can connect the dots themselves.

This is the way that most people will find out - if they find out at all - that their acquaintances have been charged with rape. This is absolutely impossible to stop within the resources of the law. Very few rape cases are actually reported in the press anywhere, and there are usually particular situations that lead to that - trials collapsing through prosecutorial incompetence, or high profile defendants, or being particularly horrific even for rape (usually involving murder or another form of additional serious violence, and/or by a stranger). The average rape trial doesn't make even the local papers. (Suspects who are not charged, or who are charged but not brought to trial, are even less likely to get press mentions)

So this proposed anonymity law? Not actually much help to most defendants, if that's the particular consequence they're worried about. It might marginally help the tiny minority of defendants who were brought to trial, in situations newsworthy enough to be reported, but not newsworthy enough for their acquittal to also be reported, but that's really not many people, or much help for them.

More on this, analysing the extreme rarity of suicide and attempts by newsworthy defendants and false accusations more generally, in other posts.

The consequences of being accused and then acquitted of rape are more serious than those for other serious crimes

Really? Given people like Polanski, I don't think it's provable that there's a significant reputation loss associated with being a convicted rapist, but for a suspected rapist, let's look at Ian Huntley. His reputation was strong enough to get work in a school despite having been suspected of ten separate sexual offences. This reputational damage doesn't look very severe at all.

Is this more or less than the reputation loss associated with, for instance, a suspected terrorist? Suspected terrorists can be held without charge for a long period of time. Even without formal charges the government can impose control orders and other restrictions that make it clear that you are a suspected terrorist (and if you want your former quality of life back, it requires a lengthy court fight to have them lifted).

No-one is arguing for anonymity for terrorist defendants, though (other than the "well, okay, other serious crimes too" arguments that have suddenly sprung up), least of all the suspected terrorists who in most cases benefit strongly from the trial being public even despite the reputational costs.

Things you just don't hear human rights organisations saying: "I think it's good that the Guantanamo detainees are being tried in secret military tribunals rather than the public courts - think of how much better it will be for their reputation if they're acquitted." - public trials are in the declaration of human rights for a reason, and it's because it is generally in the interests of the defendant.

All serious crimes, and a fair number of less serious ones, have the potential for a significant loss of reputation for the suspects. On acquittal, if the terms of the acquittal are in the public record, they have a good way to show that the arguments of the prosecution weren't convincing, or that there was incompetence in the evidence collection and they shouldn't even have been a suspect, or whatever, and most of the loss will only be temporary.

Here's the Prime Minister, defending the necessity of being able to deport suspected terrorists who he freely admits there is insufficient evidence to prosecute. Any argument that an accusation of rape is more serious for the suspect than an accusation of other serious crimes is probably not considering things properly.

Addition in light of details

The government are specifically planning to restrict this to rape, but not the very similar crime of assault by penetration. The two crimes are equally severe, and essentially the only difference is that a penis must be used for rape, but any object or other body part may be used for assault by penetration.

Arguing that being accused of [colloquial] rape-with-a-penis causes significantly more serious reputational damage than [colloquial] rape-with-anything-else is not, I think, an argument based in facts.

It's still not clear whether the separate offence "rape of a child under 13" is going to count, but again I find it unlikely that anyone is arguing that raping young children is viewed less harshly by society than raping adults. At any rate, it's clear that assault of a child under 13 by penetration is not covered.

Several other crimes from the Sexual Offences Act 2003 that meet the colloquial but not legal definition of rape, that include the possibility of life imprisonment, and that have similar public disapproval for those that commit them, are also not included. As well as various forms of sexual assault where the victim is under the age of 132, this includes kidnapping or false imprisonment with intent to commit a sexual offence (even if the sexual offence one intended to commit does not itself have a life sentence, and even if it's not actually committed, incidentally)

So even if you agree that colloquial rape is far worse than other crimes for the accused's reputation (and as I said above, I don't), legal rape is clearly not.

2 This I don't entirely get. Obviously the offences for under-13 and under-16 victims need to be different offences so that the "without consent" line can be excluded. However, I don't understand why a particular sexual criminal activity, when carried out on someone under 13 is liable for life imprisonment, but the same acts carried out on a 14-year old or a 40-year old would only have a maximum sentence of 14 years. That doesn't make a lot of sense - why isn't that also punishable by life imprisonment?

The conviction rate is actually around 58%

This one is technically true, and still a bad basis for an argument favouring defendant anonymity.

The government definition of "conviction rate" is the proportion of trials that end in conviction. The colloquial definition is the proportion of reports that end in conviction (for which I'm not sure there is a name, though the proportion of reports that do not end in conviction is the "attrition rate"). There may be a case for using more precise language - referring to "the proportion of reports that result in a conviction" rather than "the conviction rate", but since even some MPs use the two interchangeably, it's probably not urgent.

Baroness Stern, among others, has suggested that there should be more focus on this figure, and less on the attrition rate.

The bad argument is this: "Since the conviction rate is not too different to that for other crimes, there's therefore no compelling need to make things even better for victims at the expense of potentially innocent defendants."

I think Baroness Stern is wrong. The conviction rate is virtually useless in itself, and campaigners are right to focus on the attrition rate.

The Crown Prosecution Service guidelines state that prosecutors should only proceed with a case if they believe they have a better than even chance of success. It would be highly unusual in this case if the conviction rate (government meaning) was much different to the 58% it currently is - if it were much higher, for such a common crime, it would suggest that prosecutors were failing to take on some potentially winnable cases. If it were much lower it would suggest that prosecutors were getting it wrong and consistently failing to win cases that they should have done.

The attrition rate, on the other hand, lets the problems in earlier stages of the process be highlighted. I've linked to this paper by Kelly, Lovett and Regan before, and it's a detailed look at all stages where cases are lost. The differences by police force - compare Dorset on 1.6% with Cleveland on 18.1% are also instructive regarding how much more could clearly be done.

The attrition rate is also the important one for victims. Victims might, as Baroness Stern suggests, be encouraged by the thought that if their case gets to court, they're more likely than not to find their rapist convicted. Nevertheless, it seems unreasonable, and letting the police and CPS off, to not also highlight that those two organisations often fail to get cases to court.

And with the attrition rate being as bad as it is, there is definitely no case for making things harder for victims and easier for defendants.

Lots of things in the programme for government weren't in either manifesto

The example I've seen of this is that the proposed referendum on Alternative Vote was in neither the Conservative nor the Lib Dem manifesto, and this is true, it wasn't. This is, however, an entirely different sort of example.

The Conservatives want to keep First Past the Post. The Lib Dems want Single Transferable Vote and said so in their manifesto. The resulting policy of the coalition is somewhere between the two.

This policy is not somewhere between the two manifestos, however. Here's the relevant bits of the Conservative manifesto:

We will implement the Prisoners' earnings act 1996 to allow deductions from the earnings of prisoners in properly paid work to be paid into the victims' fund. We will use this fund to deliver up to fifteen new rape crisis centres and give existing rape crisis centres stable, long-term funding. To help stop sexual violence before it occurs, we will ensure that the school curriculum includes teaching young people about sexual consent.

The Lib Dem manifesto didn't mention rape at all.

A compromise between these two would be to only do some of the things suggested in the Conservative manifesto, or to do less of them. Doing something completely different, that just happened to be an obscure Lib Dem policy and a personal aim of some Conservative MPs, is not a compromise between the two manifestos.

Thursday, 27 May 2010

Too high a standard

The BBC reports on the proportion of potential new citizens to pass the citizenship test. The overall pass rate was 70.9%, and to pass requires answering at least 18 questions out of a 24 question test correctly.

When the test was first announced, this sample test (flash-based, might not be very accessible, at least two of the questions on the sample test have answers that are not strictly true) got passed around various forums. Numerous UK citizens had a go at it.

The pass rate for UK citizens, I think, was between 10% and 20%. Without cheating and looking things up on the internet, I got 13 out of 24, which is nowhere near enough, but was a fairly typical score. It should tell you how useful some of the knowledge tested is to being a UK citizen, anyway.

There's a booklet that one can get before taking the test, that goes through the facts that might be tested. What the test is actually testing is that:

  1. You can read English well enough to read the book and then interpret the questions.
  2. You have a good medium-term memory for apparently pointless facts.

Unsurprisingly, the pass-rates for migrants from countries where English is an official language are really high (presumably the people who failed were those who were never any good at exams, and/or had disabilities that made the test environment inherently unfair), and the pass rates for migrants from other countries were much lower.

It's in keeping, of course, with the country's apparent need to be unfriendly to immigrants (while remaining reasonably friendly to ex-pats) that it sets a test for citizenship that the majority of the existing citizens would never pass without practice.

Take away their dictionary license

Operation Black Vote reports that the General Teaching Council has cleared a teacher who posted "racially offensive" comments on the internet. Given the comments, there has been a lot of criticism of this decision, and rightly so.

[trigger warning for racist and dehumanising language]

Here's what they said, among other things:

"Our country is fast becoming a dumping ground for the filth of the third world. And all we do is sleep. If we do not wake up and get a grip soon then the country we have fought and died for and cherish so much will itself be turned into a third world cess pit. Indeed, in some parts of our country it already has!!!! We have enough on our plates sorting out our own home grown scumbags and scroungers without allowing filth from other countries to come here and destroy us."

And:

"Pull all of our soldiers out of all foreign conflicts and get them back here to patrol our own borders. This will prevent our country from being over-run by third world savages, the likes of which we have seen murdering our people and destroying our way of life."

So, some pretty clear dehumanisation and racism there.

Here's what the General Teaching Council decided about those postings in particular (all quotes from the Word document linked on that page):

The Committee's view is that such postings contain offensive terms and demonstrate views or an attitude that might be considered racist. The Committee notes that some postings appear to have been cut and pasted from other documents or websites, but the postings above appear to convey Mr Walker's views in no uncertain terms.

Very understated - "might be", indeed - but so far the case looks clear. And then...

However for the GTC to prove its case in relation to particular 2 the Committee has to be satisfied that contributions made by Mr Walker demonstrated views suggestive of racial intolerance. Although "suggestive" may be a relatively low threshold, "intolerance" is a significant word which the Committee has considered very carefully.

The Legal Adviser provided the Committee with a definition of intolerance from the Oxford English Dictionary which suggests it might mean "not tolerating opinions or practices different from one’s own, denying or refusing to others the right to dissent." The Committee has found this definition a helpful way to consider the ordinary meaning to be given to this word.

[...]

The Committee’s view is that, to be suggestive of intolerance, the postings would need to deny or refuse to others the right to dissent.

Well, yes, if you use that particular definition of "intolerance" then nothing Mr Walker did would count. He could be as racially abusive as he liked, but provided he didn't call for immigrants to be banned from the internet forum in which the discussion was taking place, it wouldn't be "intolerance".

The OED, good as it is, is not always up to date. This is trivially true in the case of "intolerance", since the definition, in common English usage and included in other dictionaries of "abnormal sensitivity or allergy to a food, drug, etc." is not included in the 1989 Second Edition (it will, of course, be in later revised editions)

Given that, it's fairly clear that the rest of it might also not reflect contemporary usage either. Relying on the dictionary is not, in any case, a sensible thing to do (I saw a good post on this not long ago, which I have no managed to lose - if I find it again I'll edit a link to it in here).

At any rate, the link there includes the slightly different definition:

lack of toleration; unwillingness or refusal to tolerate or respect contrary opinions or beliefs, persons of different races or backgrounds, etc.

"... refusal to ... respect .. persons of different races or backgrounds". That, it seems quite clear, is something that Mr Walker was doing.

Yes, under certain definitions of the word, Mr Walker was not being racially intolerant. But then, under certain definitions of the word "personal", they could have found him innocent of "personal use of a school laptop", if they'd used the OED definition 3b:

Affecting one's body; relating to one's physical safety or well-being.

Was Mr Walker repeatedly dropping the laptop on his foot? No.

Conversely, they could have found not only him but all of his colleagues guilty, by using definition 2a:

Done, made, held, performed, etc., in person, or by the person concerned; involving the actual presence or action of the individual (as opposed to an agent or representative). [...]

Oh no! They're using the laptops themselves instead of giving them to the designated laptop handlers to use.

Instead, they used the obvious and reasonable definition, not dissimilar to the OED's 1a:

Of, relating to, concerning, or affecting a person as a private individual (rather than as a member of a group or the public, or in a public or professional capacity) [...]

So if they could apply some basic sense to that, and consider what the rule was clearly meant to apply to, why throw it out - and change a relatively loose standard into a very tight and easily avoidable one - when discussing the specific charges of racism.

The criticism they are receiving from a wide variety of sources for doing so is entirely justified.

Wednesday, 26 May 2010

Initial thoughts on the programme for government

So, the Program for Government. It's even possible to comment on the individual aspects of it online, which is impressive (well, now that they've got that bit working) but probably not useful.

The classifications are somewhat arbitrary, and it could do with more linking between sections, which makes it a little hard to read (and also allows things to be a little hidden on anything other than a comprehensive search). Some things appear to be missing entirely from the logical section, but have adequate coverage elsewhere. Other things are more notable for their complete absence from the programme.

It's - as is to be expected for a programme covering a planned 5-year term - very long. It's also short on details almost everywhere, which will only be revealed if and when the relevant legislation or guidelines or budgets are released.

In general, the principles seem fine, but what details there are for proposals don't always back up the principles. There are some long overdue ideas, and also plenty that it would have been better if they had never been put forward. On the whole, I'm cautiously optimistic - it's not a good programme for government, but it's not in most areas a disaster either, and the nature of a coalition government means that campaigning might be able to lead to more satisfactory outcomes.

Details and comments on some of the proposals below. There's a lot I've not commented on, on the basis that I just don't know enough about the area to know what the likely effects are.

Banking

At a first glance, this all looks okay. It'll depend on what the details of the new regulations are.

Business

This is a large section, and a lot of it is relatively uncontroversial. Help for small businesses, requirements for businesses to report on social and environmental duties, etc. However, there's some quite worrying clauses too.

We will cut red tape by introducing a ‘one-in, one-out’ rule whereby no new regulation is brought in without other regulation being cut by a greater amount.

So, on banking, it's all "too much deregulation, everything went wrong, let's regulate them again", but for other businesses it's "too much regulation, let's deregulate". There probably are some regulations that could be removed harmlessly, but imposing a requirement that the total amount of regulation always decreases is absurd - especially when a lot of the rest of the section is talking about things that would require added regulations. It seems like it's just a grab for an easy soundbite.

We will review employment and workplace laws, for employers and employees, to ensure they maximise flexibility for both parties while protecting fairness and providing the competitive environment required for enterprise to thrive.

Given the parties of the current government, I'm fairly certain that this will see more restrictions on the rights to take industrial action, and a net reduction in employee protections in other areas.

Civil liberties

All good stuff, now that the government seems to have accepted that it essentially can't usefully repeal the Human Rights Act (and would never have the Commons votes for it anyway).

Given that this was one of the previous government's worst areas, "stop doing that" is all you really need for a policy success, of course.

In practice, of course, it may just be a different set of civil liberties that get restricted.

Communities and local government

Again, some good things in here, such as improvements to energy efficiency standards, greater protection against aggressive debt collectors, and so on, though how much use they'll be in practice is hard to tell. Also some worrying bits:

We will freeze Council Tax in England for at least one year, and seek to freeze it for a further year, in partnership with local authorities.

Combine that with a likely drop in central government funding for local authorities, and a lot of important local services are going to have to be reduced or dropped entirely, with the usual greater effects on people who are working-class and/or disabled and/or old.

Consumer protection

It's hard for any government to put "actually, we think consumers are too protected", at least, not in this section of the document. There doesn't seem to be anything actually bad here, though how much good any of it does will as always depend on the detail.

Crime and policing

We will reduce time-wasting bureaucracy that hampers police operations, and introduce better technology to make policing more effective while saving taxpayers’ money.

We will amend the health and safety laws that stand in the way of common sense policing.

Making police record - for instance - every stop and search they do, is often perceived, both by the police and large parts of the press, as "time-wasting bureaucracy". Given that it's the only thing that makes it possible to definitively tell how much racial profiling the police are doing, and perhaps gives them second thoughts about doing so on occasion, slowing them down slightly seems a good thing.

As far as "health and safety laws" go, I have no idea what this refers to, but "health and safety" and "common sense" in the same sentence sets off alarms.

We will promote better recording of hate crimes against disabled, homosexual and transgender people, which are frequently not centrally recorded.

Definitely good. Should, of course, have been a requirement from the start.

Culture, Olympics, media and sport

They're in favour of them.

We will cut red tape to encourage the performance of more live music.

If this is about Form 696, then this is definitely a good thing.

Defence

We will maintain Britain’s nuclear deterrent, and have agreed that the renewal of Trident should be scrutinised to ensure value for money. Liberal Democrats will continue to make the case for alternatives. We will immediately play a strong role in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, and press for continued progress on multilateral disarmament.

"Value for money" is a strange concept to apply to nuclear weapons. In the event that you use them, there will be a near-complete collapse of civilisation and economic systems very soon afterwards. At that point, how much you previously paid for them is irrelevant (and before that point, the less you spend on them, the more you have left over for other things). If you don't use them (which is the plan), the most cost-effective one is the cheapest that your hypothetical enemy believes would work if you did use it.

Also, of course, maintaining the nuclear deterrent while wanting multilateral disarmament seems impossibly inconsistent.

Deficit reduction

We will significantly accelerate the reduction of the structural deficit over the course of a Parliament, with the main burden of deficit reduction borne by reduced spending rather than increased taxes.

In other words, reduced services for those who need them rather than more taxes on those who could do without the reduced services anyway. There might be sufficient unnecessary spending to reduce the deficit without harming services, but I doubt it.

Energy and climate change

Nothing particularly bad, but it's probably not ambitious enough either.

Environment, food and rural affairs

They're in favour of that, too. Lots of "investigate" and "work towards" and not so much actual commitments. Oh, and fox hunting.

Equalities

We will stop the deportation of asylum seekers who have had to leave particular countries because their sexual orientation or gender identification puts them at proven risk of imprisonment, torture or execution.

Better late than never (though "proven" allows a lot of room for error).

There doesn't seem to be anything on disabilities and despite the preamble nothing much on class either.

Europe

We will ensure that there is no further transfer of sovereignty or powers over the course of the next Parliament. We will examine the balance of the EU’s existing competences and will, in particular, work to limit the application of the Working Time Directive in the United Kingdom.

See previous comments on employer versus employee rights.

Otherwise nothing particularly surprising. Not getting any closer to Europe, but not getting further away either.

Families and children

We will review the criminal records and vetting and barring regime and scale it back to common sense levels.

...This will give us plenty of room to scale it back up again in response to the next five years of "how could this person ever have been allowed near children" headlines in the press.

We will encourage shared parenting from the earliest stages of pregnancy – including the promotion of a system of flexible parental leave.

Better leave arrangements in this area could be a big improvement, but the big difference between here and the Scandinavian countries that have more flexible leave is that those countries also pay that leave better.

Foreign affairs

Lots of bits in favour of world peace and co-operation, except for unpopular countries.

We will never condone the use of torture.

It's worrying how far the boundaries of what is acceptable have deteriorated that this even needs to be said.

Government transparency

They're in favour of that too.

We will ensure that all data published by public bodies is published in an open and standardised format, so that it can be used easily and with minimal cost by third parties.

This bit would be very good if it actually happens.

Immigration

Given how bad a mostly-Conservative policy on immigration could have been, it could be a lot worse. There's even some good bits

We will end the detention of children for immigration purposes.

Though it's not just the detention of children that makes the detention centres a problem, of course - and stopping the abuse of adult detainees doesn't get a mention.

The proposals for a cap on non-EU immigration really depend on where the cap is set. If it's too low, and the pressure from the media and the right will always be to lower it, then people who should be allowed in will be turned away (which happens enough as it is). If it's high enough not to actually restrict immigration significantly, then it will cause problems anyway with the reinforcement of the dominant "immigration is bad" framing.

International development

We will support actions to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. In particular, we will prioritise aid spending on programmes to ensure that everyone has access to clean water, sanitation, healthcare and education; to reduce maternal and infant mortality; and to restrict the spread of major diseases like HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria. We will recognise the vital role of women in development, promote gender equality and focus on the rights of women, children and disabled people to access services.

And lots of other things that sound good on paper.

Jobs and welfare

We will re-assess all current claimants of Incapacity Benefit for their readiness to work. Those assessed as fully capable for work will be moved onto Jobseeker’s Allowance.

This sounds like continuing with the previous government's programme, which has not been good. The comments on that page are full of complaints about it, and there was a highly critical report by Citizens Advice not long ago.

Nothing on job creation, either.

Justice

Lots of focus on rehabilitation and reducing reoffending, which is good.

We will change the law so that historical convictions for consensual gay sex with over-16s will be treated as spent and will not show up on criminal records checks.

Good.

We will extend anonymity in rape cases to defendants.

A lot has been said on this already. It's still a bad idea.

National security

Nothing surprising. I'm not sure exactly what constitutes a "verifiable guarantee" in:

We believe that Britain should be able to deport foreign nationals who threaten our security to countries where there are verifiable guarantees that they will not be tortured. We will seek to extend these guarantees to more countries.

Depending on how much verifying gets done, this could allow a lot of torture that apparently we don't condone.

NHS

They're promising to increase real-terms funding despite general cuts in government spending, which means that they can promise a lot more with this.

Lots of cuts on the easy target of "admin", though. I seriously doubt that a third of administration costs are unnecessary - done well, all your admin costs should either be saving money overall or improving service quality anyway.

We will seek to stop foreign healthcare professionals working in the NHS unless they have passed robust language and competence tests.

I keep reading this as "(robust language) and (competence) tests" rather than as "robust (language and competence) tests". Ties in with some of their anti-immigration policies.

As pointed out in the comments there already, the big thing that is missing is anything on mental health treatment. (People with mental health problems get a mention in Justice instead, next to "drugs offenders")

Pensions and older people

We will commit to establishing an independent commission to review the long-term affordability of public sector pensions, while protecting accrued rights.

This could be very controversial, depending on what it says. Public sector salaries are generally lower than private sector salaries for a comparable job, which means other benefits such as good pensions help to make up the difference.

Political reform

Five years seems a bit long for a fixed Parliamentary term, though it does at least ensure that they drift with respect to the local elections rather than being held with the same set each time.

Of course, whether the coalition actually lasts five years is hard to tell at the moment.

We will bring forward a Referendum Bill on electoral reform, which includes provision for the introduction of the Alternative Vote in the event of a positive result in the referendum, as well as for the creation of fewer and more equal sized constituencies. We will whip both Parliamentary parties in both Houses to support a simple majority referendum on the Alternative Vote, without prejudice to the positions parties will take during such a referendum.

Alternative Vote isn't great, and wouldn't make much difference in most seats (except that the uniform transfer calculations don't take into account unpopular incumbents who could still maintain a plurality of the votes), but it's still an improvement on the current system, and a potential step towards a proportional voting system.

We will establish a committee to bring forward proposals for a wholly or mainly elected upper chamber on the basis of proportional representation. [...]

A proportionally-elected upper chamber and a constituency-based lower chamber might actually work out quite well as a compromise system. They're going to adjust the composition of the Lords to make it proportional to vote share in the meantime, so that will provide some testing.

We will ensure that any petition that secures 100,000 signatures will be eligible for formal debate in Parliament. The petition with the most signatures will enable members of the public to table a bill eligible to be voted on in Parliament.

Here are the previous petitions in order of size. There were eight that got above 100,000 and there's one currently open that will probably reach that threshold too if the new government continues with the system.

The responses to the eight were "No", "No", "no answer" (it ended not long before the start of the election campaign), "No-one was planning to do that in the first place", "Still no", "No-one was planning to do that either", "We'll think about it" and "No", which perhaps gives an idea of why the new government is uncertain about what to do with the system, but doesn't explain why they think this is a good idea.

We will introduce extra support for people with disabilities who want to become MPs, councillors or other elected officials.

Good, but again, it'll be the details that matter.

Public health

The Government believes that we need action to promote public health, and encourage behaviour change to help people live healthier lives.

No explicit mention of the role of government in providing safe and affordable facilities for exercise, for instance, but there's also no explicit mention of the "obesity epidemic" in this section, which might allow for some improvements in policy there.

Schools

This section as a whole does not seem particularly good. A lot will depend, as usual, on the details, but many of the principles are worrying in themselves. No mention of home education (it doesn't belong in this section, but it wasn't in "Families and children" either) which hopefully means they're going to leave it alone.

We will give parents, teachers, charities and local communities the chance to set up new schools, as part of our plans to allow new providers to enter the state school system in response to parental demand.

How this will work in practice is difficult to tell. I don't know how many groups would want to take up this offer, or how easy they'd find it to set up a new school anyway. It seems like it would spread the state funding more thinly, and it's somewhat stretched as it is.

We will help schools tackle bullying in schools, especially homophobic bullying.

Again, the details will be important (and since they've mentioned recording transphobic and disablist hate crimes elsewhere, it seems unusual that they aren't also mentioned here), but this is urgently needed.

Social action

The principles are good, but the ideas seem a bit lacking.

I'm fully in favour of volunteering, collective action, and so on, as a way of making improvements to society. Obviously so. However, it's time-consuming, difficult, can have worse accessibility issues than more formalised work, and sometimes expensive. There's a lot of talk in this section about encouraging volunteering, but nothing about giving people the spare time to be able to do it.

We will give public sector workers a new right to form employee-owned co-operatives and bid to take over the services they deliver. This will empower millions of public sector workers to become their own boss and help them to deliver better services.

I'm not completely clear how outsourcing your job to yourself is supposed to improve services (if it really does give them better control, then it might increase morale, which might help). If they then don't deliver better services, can they be replaced? (Either answer makes it a bad idea for someone to actually let this happen for their public services)

Social care and disability

As with many sections, the principles are sufficiently uncontroversial that they're meaningless (who in mainstream politics would admit to being opposed to dignity and respect in a document like this?) but it all depends on the details.

Taxation

The compromises of coalition seem to have meant that most of the tax cuts - at least to start with - will be for people with low incomes and wealth. I expect the Conservatives will want to get back to the Inheritance tax cuts sooner rather than later, though, which they've left quite open.

We will seek ways of taxing non-business capital gains at rates similar or close to those applied to income, with generous exemptions for entrepreneurial business activities.

Good. Capital Gains Tax being lower than Income Tax makes sense for the riskier sort of gains associated with setting up a new business, but not for many of the other sources of money covered by this tax. It's very vague language, though, so whether it actually happens or not will be hard to tell.

We will make every effort to tackle tax avoidance, including detailed development of Liberal Democrat proposals.

I'll believe it when I see it. No government is ever explicitly in favour of tax avoidance, but they all leave enough loopholes.

Transport

Mainly focused on improvements to rail.

We will grant longer rail franchises in order to give operators the incentive to invest in the improvements passengers want – like better services, better stations, longer trains and better rolling stock.

I wonder if this might work better if they were given shorter franchises, renewal of which was made conditional on making improvements (and possibly on continuing the improvements of the previous holder), since the other possibility here is that they'll take the longer franchises as an excuse to do as little as possible.

Universities and further education

As usual, unpopular policy is being held off until a report scheduled for after the election. Funding for universities is quite a problem, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a few universities go bankrupt in the next five years.

Student fees is the big election issue here, but won't make a large difference to university funding as a whole. It really depends how they are implemented - if done well, with good-quality means testing (which, among other things, doesn't assume that students will necessarily be supported by their families) it could actually be beneficial for less wealthy students.

Notes

The deficit reduction programme takes precedence over any of the other measures in this agreement, and the speed of implementation of any measures that have a cost to the public finances will depend on decisions to be made in the Comprehensive Spending Review.

In other words "don't expect any of the bits which cost money to be done". Unfortunately, that includes a lot of the good bits and doesn't include a lot of the worse bits.